Caulfield Cup Betting Live Blog
Caulfield Cup Day, 3:45pm
The Caulfield Cup is done for another year and the betting ring is still buzzing. A roughie has saluted, the favourite has floundered and the bookies are claiming their best result of the carnival. Here is how the market moved from the barrier draw to the winning post.
If you are here for the odds, the results and the moments that shaped the race, you are in the right place. We will keep this updated as the dust settles.
Barrier draw shakes up the early market
9:15am – Barrier draw complete
Tuesday's barrier draw did more to reshape the Caulfield Cup market than any piece of trackwork this spring. The early favourite, who had been firming all week, drew barrier 17 and drifted from 4.60 out to 5.50 within the hour. A stablemate with the inside draw shortened from 8.00 into 6.50. That is how much gate matters over 2400 metres at Caulfield.
The early market shaped up like this:
Inside draw favourite – 6.50
The reining favourite – 5.50
Last start winner – 7.00
Local hope – 9.00
French raider – 11.00
Roughie of the moment – 41.00
Every bookmaker on the course had a different line within that range. The discrepancies told you where the smart money was going. One leading corporate had the French raider at 9.00 while most of the ring had him at 11.00. If you were quick, there was a price to be taken.
Track upgrade catches punters off guard
10:40am – Track now a Soft 5
Stewards upgraded the Caulfield surface from Soft 6 to Soft 5 after the morning inspection. A dry night and a warm north wind have taken the sting out of the track. That is significant for a few runners who had been backed on the assumption of a genuinely wet surface.
The horse that drifted most was the heavy-track specialist, out from 12.00 to 15.00. In the same breath, two runners with strong dry-track form were hammered. One came in from 10.00 to 7.50. The other went from 26.00 to 18.00. Nobody sits on the fence when the track swings.
There is more sun forecast through the day and the rail is in the true position. Expect the surface to keep drying out. If it reaches a Good 4 by the main race, the market will move again.
Money comes for the big-race jockey
11:25am – Jockey market active
The biggest betting move of the morning has not been on a horse. It has been on a jockey. The leading rider in the country, who has been in career-best form through the spring, firmed from 3.80 into 2.90 in the market for top jockey of the day.
He has four rides on the card and two genuine winning chances. One of those, the $7.00 hope in the Cup, is the horse the punters have decided is the value runner of the race. The other, a last-start winner in the earlier event, has been backed from 5.00 into 3.80.
Racing Victoria confirmed this morning that his Cup mount had pulled up well from Saturday's gallop and would take its place in the field. That was enough for one punter to tip $5,000 into the tote at 7.00, which explains why the horse has tightened further to 6.00.
A plunge that never landed
12:50pm – Favourite drifts again
There is a story doing the rounds in the mounting yard that explains why the favourite keeps drifting. A stable insider was seen having a long conversation with a prominent punter, and within minutes the horse went from 5.00 to 5.50. It might be nothing. It might be everything. The market has made its call.
The mover of the afternoon is the New Zealand raider, who has been specked from 21.00 into 14.00. Fluorescent vests have been spotted taking the 15.00 and 14.00 in the ring. If you were looking for a sign, that is one. The horse has won two on end across the ditch and gets the 2400 metres it needs.
The stable has confirmed the horse will settle further back than usual, with the hope that the wide barrier gives the jockey room to manoeuvre. It is a confident plan from a stable that knows how to win these races. The price continues to tumble.
Final market before the jump
3:20pm – Runners are at the gates
The horses are parading and the final market has been set. The favourite goes around at 5.00 after being backed late. The New Zealand raider, the subject of that afternoon plunge, has settled at 12.00. The local hope sits at 7.50 and the French raider has drifted to 13.00.
One last move worth noting: the second emergency has been scratched, which means the field is set and no further changes are possible. A horse that had been at 34.00 for much of the day has been crunched into 21.00 in the last hour. The stable's confidence has been well advertised.
Online operators are reporting record turnover for a spring race. The convenience of instant deposits and same-race multis through apps has changed how punters bet on the big days, and this Cup has been the clearest example yet.
They're racing
3:45pm – The Cup is run
The Caulfield Cup has been run and won, and it was not the result the market predicted. The favourite travelled like a winner for 1800 metres and then found nothing when the pressure went on. The race was taken out by the $21.00 chance, who settled last, weaved through the field at the 300 and hit the front inside the final 50 metres.
A length and a quarter back, the New Zealand raider ran on strongly for second, proving the plunge merchants had the right horse, just a race too early. The local hope battled on for third after covering extra ground. The favourite beat only three runners home.
The winning time was 2.31.08, outside the track record but inside the average for a genuine Soft 5. The jockey, who won his third Caulfield Cup, said the horse relaxed so well that he knew at the 800 he had them covered.
What the result means for the markets
4:10pm – Post-race reaction
The bookies have done their sums and they are smiling. The plunge horses all missed, the favourite failed, and the winner was at a generous price. It is the kind of result that keeps a trading team in bonuses for a month.
For punters, the result is a reminder that the Caulfield Cup is a race where the market gets it wrong as often as it gets it right. Since 2010, only four favourites have won. The winner here was the 21.00 chance, so the exotics were the place to be. The trifecta paid $4,856.60 and the first four paid just under $32,000.
The winner will now be aimed at the Melbourne Cup, and the market for the first Tuesday in November has already opened. The Caulfield Cup winner is at 15.00 for Flemington, with the New Zealand raider at 21.00. If the track stays dry, expect those prices to firm.
The carnival rolls on
4:45pm – What comes next
The Caulfield Cup is the headline, but the spring carnival is far from over. Cox Plate week at Moonee Valley is next, and the early betting has the favourite at 2.80. The Melbourne Cup remains the race that stops the nation, and the markets are already open for the big one.
For the punters who backed the winner at 21.00, the smart move is to take some of the profit and lock in a Melbourne Cup price while the momentum is there. The bookmakers will be sharpening their pencils overnight and the 15.00 on offer right now will not last.
If you want to have a go at the remaining carnival races, online operators including Wild Fortune Casino have their carnival promotions running through to Melbourne Cup day. Compare the odds, check the conditions, and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Betting responsibly this spring
5:30pm – A final word
The spring carnival brings out the casual punter like nothing else. That is a good thing when it stays fun. It becomes a problem when the bets get bigger than the entertainment value.
Set a budget before the races and treat it as the cost of a day at the track. Use the tools the bookmakers offer, including deposit limits and time outs, and know that BetStop is there if you want to take a break from betting altogether. Gambling Help Online is available 24/7 if you need someone to talk to.
The Caulfield Cup delivered a result nobody saw coming. That is why we love this sport. Just make sure the next race you back is one you can afford to lose.
Remember to gamble responsibly. BetStop is the National Self-Exclusion Register. Call 1800 858 858 for free and confidential support.